Economist predicts AI will replace only 5% of jobs in next decade

Microsoft's Chief AI Officer, Mustafa Suleyman, cited Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu's prediction that AI will replace only about 5% of human jobs within the next 10 years. Acemoglu, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2024 for his research on institutions and their impact on prosperity, estimated that while AI could theoretically automate 20% of work, practical adoption is expected to be much slower. The analysis was published in July 2026 in the inaugural issue of The Humanist Review. Acemoglu noted that AI performs well in controlled environments like coding and radiology but struggles in real-world settings due to challenges in integration and adaptation. In February 2026, Suleyman told The Financial Times that many white-collar tasks could be automated within 12 to 18 months, but he later clarified that this refers to tasks, not entire jobs. Acemoglu acknowledged that the 5% figure is an estimate and emphasized the gap between AI's rapid development and the slower pace of enterprise adoption. He highlighted that engineers spend significant time fine-tuning AI-generated code, and doctors face difficulties combining AI tools with their expertise. Suleyman, in a June 2026 podcast, reiterated that AI enhances efficiency without replacing entire roles, underscoring the nuanced impact of automation on the workforce.