Gartner warns of major AI infrastructure investment risks by 2030

Gartner has warned that global investments in AI infrastructure between 2026 and 2030 could reach $7 trillion, but the returns by 2030 may only amount to $3.6 trillion. Will Sommer, a senior director analyst at Gartner, noted that with financing costs and a 12% return on investment, the expected revenue should be $8.5 trillion, leaving a $5 trillion gap. The firm predicts that it may take until 2032 to achieve the 12% return target, with over $4 trillion in assets potentially at risk of impairment before then. Additionally, Gartner forecasts that more than 80% of Neocloud providers—new AI cloud service companies—will cease independent operations by 2030 due to the limited growth in industry spending and the rapid chip iteration cycles.