IDC forecasts major shifts: enterprises to rely on open-source models and AI agents by 2028

International Data Corporation (IDC) recently released its FutureScape 2027 predictions, covering 250 forecasts across 25 research areas. The firm projects that by 2028, 60% of enterprises will operate a majority of their AI workloads on open-source models. This shift is expected to allow companies to mitigate vendor lock-in and manage costs through model routing strategies. Furthermore, IDC anticipates significant AI integration across the G2000 companies, with 60% expected to run most business processes AI-first by 2029, a substantial increase from the current 13%. By 2028, 70% of these giants are projected to possess the capability to continuously validate AI agent decisions. However, the report also highlights risks; G2000 firms lacking emergency stop switches for agents in production environments face potential increases in liability insurance premiums by 25% and double the risk of major audit exposure. In terms of workforce evolution, IDC forecasts that by 2029, 30% of entry-level and mid-level operational roles within G2000 companies will transition to positions focused on AI agent supervision and orchestration. For mid-market firms with 1,000 to 4,999 employees, approximately half are expected to see an increase in junior staff within the next 18 months, while only a 17% reduction is anticipated.