Nobel laureate warns ai's potential depends on competition and education

At the 2026 Inclusion·Bund Financial Conference, Nobel laureate Philippe Aghion warned that while AI could boost productivity growth by 1.08 percentage points annually over the next decade, its impact hinges on competition policies, education systems, and labor market reforms. Aghion highlighted that AI's potential to increase productivity by 0.68 percentage points, alongside its role in fostering new ideas, could lead to a total gain of 1.08 percentage points. However, he cautioned that technological breakthroughs alone do not guarantee sustained growth, citing the U.S. IT revolution's slowdown after 2000. Aghion emphasized the need for competition policies to prevent market concentration, noting that the AI value chain is already dominated by major firms like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Aghion also praised China's progress in frontier innovation, contrasting it with Europe's lag behind both the U.S. and China. He stressed the importance of education and labor market adaptation, arguing that manual and soft skills will be crucial in the AI era. He called for regulated AI use in education, ensuring students retain independent thinking and calculation skills. Denmark’s flexible security system was cited as a model for supporting workers during job transitions. Aghion concluded that AI’s growth potential and job-creation capacity depend on competition policies, education, and labor market protections.